This CBS New York article lays out some specific criteria for Governor Cuomo starting to lift New York’s lockdowns and relax its stay-at-home orders. In short:
- Hospitalizations have been on the decline for 14 days
- At least 30% of hospital beds and ICU beds available
- Ready to do contact tracing, with 30 tracers per 100,000 people
- Positive tests are on the decline even when a lot of testing (it doesn’t say exactly how much) is being done
- Each individual business that wants to reopen must present a plan to keep its workers safe, and industries with lower contact risks will reopen first
Different parts of the country are in all different places pandemic-wise, so you’d have to hold each state or city up to that list individually and see how it compares. Take this article about Texas’ plans to enter the first stage of reopening on May 1:
- Hospitalizations have “held steady” (for 17 days? It isn’t clear)
- Hospitals aren’t filled to capacity (doesn’t say how close they are)
- Ready to do contact tracing, but even with the number of tracers they plan to add, it’s only about 7 tracers per 100,000 people
- Infection rate “has been on the decline for the past 17 days” (doesn’t say how much testing there is)
- First stage of reopening includes “restaurants, retail stores, movie theaters…museums and libraries”, apparently all of them, limited to 25% capacity. State-licensed healthcare professionals, too, “can reopen offices with precautions.” Childcare and summer camps are still closed; next phase of reopening can only begin after “two weeks of data to confirm no flare-up of Covid-19.”
So…not as reckless as they could be, but not as cautious and well-prepared as you might hope for, either?
And the order of business reopening seems…odd. For another comparison, Ohio is doing non-urgent medical services first, followed quickly by manufacturing and construction; consumer retail will be held off for 2 weeks, presumably more if infections flare back up; and restaurants are being saved for even later. Libraries in particular are designing their own reopening timeline, where the first stage involves staff providing limited on-site services (e.g. reference calls, interlibrary loan, shelving returns from the drop box) without being open to the public at all.
Ugh. I really hope we can thread this needle, but it’s not going to be easy.
Anyway, have some links. (I pulled out the good-for-the-soul ones and saved them for the end.)
April 15: “Today’s infographic leverages data from the Occupational Information Network to determine which occupations face the highest risk of exposure to COVID-19.” Not only that, they’re plotted by income, so you can see who’s being paid in proportion to the risk they’re taking and who…isn’t.
April 19: “In this instance, the executive managed to secure the supplies, but what is most horrifying about his account is that this experience was not all that surprising to him — he expected interference from federal officials, and did everything he could (including staging the shipment in food-service trucks to avoid detection) to get around that interference.”
April 21: “The number of new deaths reported in the U.S. in the week beginning March 16 was 678 percent higher than the previous week. In New York State, the number grew thirty-six-fold the same week. By comparison, the worst one-week increase in new flu and pneumonia deaths during the 2017-18 flu season was 26 percent, and during the 1957-58 Asian flu was 48 percent. Although the growth in Covid-19 deaths is now slowing, the number of new deaths for the week ending on April 5 was still more than double that of the week before.” Graphs and statistics to help visualize the spike.
April 22: “He took him to three different emergency rooms and said each time, Fowler was not admitted and not tested, despite having many of the symptoms. ‘I honestly believe it was because my father was black. They didn’t honestly take his symptoms serious enough to give him a test.’” …Justice for Gary Fowler.
April 29: “Not trying to belabor this, but imagine: Your father or mother, sister or brother, wife or husband dies, and you find out their bodies have been left out to rot in a U-Haul truck. Because there’s just too many bodies.”
“so I stopped buying the shampoo for itchy scalp and dandruff and can you guess I have now? Can you predict what currently afflicts me?”
Good for the soul:
April 20: (Video) “A lot of the “liberate” footage is meant to make these events look big. Here’s what the protest in Ohio today really looks like.”
April 29: “I remember telling them how Islam says its every citizen’s duty to help and carry out a person’s final journey out of humanity and respect. I was just doing that as a fellow human being.”